They're short, funny and well-written. And they're 100%, dead-on-balls accurate. 99% of everything that is wrong with the world is beautifully exemplified in these two articles:
Who IS this guy?!
Political Talk Show Host and Internet Radio Personality. My show, In My Humble Opinion, aired on RainbowRadio from 2015-2017, and has returned for 2021! Feel free to contact me at niceguy9418@usa.com. You can also friend me on Facebook.
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Showing posts with label jones. Show all posts
Showing posts with label jones. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 27, 2015
Monday, October 10, 2011
Occupy Reality, part one
The Dow Jones Industrial Average "soared" 330 points today. What does that mean? Well... nothing, actually. But there's an interesting story to the DJIA when take in context. Here are the numbers over the past two months:
From July 21st to August 8th it lost 1914.26 points. That's... a pretty substantial drop. Now... Seeing as how it had been an almost consistently upward trend for over a year leading up to that point - up 6097.27 points since its low, about six weeks or so after Obama took office. So... What was going on during that time period that might have given the economy some jitters? Hmmm.... Let me think...
OH YEAH!
The whole stupid DEBT CEILING DEBATE! Thank you, REPUBLICANS! I mean, GOD FORBID the recovery happen when there's a DEMOCRAT in the White House! Keynes might make a comeback or something! (Of course, by stiflingng the stimulus packages, and seeing the recovery falter, they basically PROVED Keynes was right, but don't expect that liberal media (*barf*) to tell you that!) They couldn't bear to see that Obama (and Keynes) were RIGHT, so they invented an issue in order to shit-can the economy. Way to go, Republicans!
And since then, check it out:
UP 429.82
DOWN 519.83
UP 423.37
UP 125.71
UP 213.88
DOWN 77.707
UP 5.017
DOWN 419.63
DOWN 172.93
UP 37
UP 322.11
UP 143.95
DOWN 170.89
UP 134.72
UP 254.71
UP 20.7
UP 53.58
DOWN 119.96
DOWN 369.31
UP 15.04
UP 275.56
DOWN 119.05
DOWN 303.68
UP 68.99
UP 44.73
UP 140.88
UP 186.45
UP 75.91
DOWN 108.08
UP 7.65
DOWN 283.82
DOWN 391.01
UP 37.65
UP 272.38
UP 146.83
DOWN 179.79
UP 143.08
DOWN 240.6
DOWN 258.08
UP 153.41
UP 131.24
UP 183.38
DOWN 20.21
UP 330.06
Now, the trend? On average? Since, August 8th? Is DOWNWARD. OK, yeah, the index is actually UP 193.41 points since the start period, but the trend-line says that we'll lose about 4.65 points per trading day. The thing is? Do you notice how many days there are that the CHANGE (up or down) was in the triple digits? Because I did. Don't bother counting, I'm going to tell you: 32 out of 44. That 72% of the time that the Index changed by roughly 1% of it's overall value. To put that in context - a 1% change in a single day - if it went UP every day by 1%, in a year you'd have roughly THIRTEEN TIMES the money you started with. Now, obviously, that's never going to happen. Down days will cancel out up days and vice-versa. But more than EVER OTHER DAY? THREE OUT OF EVERY FOUR?! That's extraordinary.
So... what does it mean?
Well... You have to understand that the DJIA is nothing but a handful of stocks (30) that the Dow Jones Company picks because they feel that they are a good indicator of the countries overall economic health. (It's actually one of THREE indices for this purpose, but it the only one anyone every talks about, so it's what we're going to talk about.) And you also have to understand what a stock's price actually means. What it is, is the net present value (which assumes some arbitrary inflation rate) of all future dividends (profits) divided by the number of shares. IOW, it's a predictive value of how a company will do. And, obviously, as new information comes in (like quarterly reports?) both that projection, and the price, will change accordingly.
So... what does it mean that "the experts" keep changing their prediction by such a significant amount every day, up and down?
Well, for a start, it may seem that they don't what the hell they're bloody doing! But ACTUALLY, it merely means that there's a lot of economic instability at the moment. Now the Republcians will balme it on all kinds of things that eitehr haven't happened yet (like tax increases) or things that have no chance of happeneing. (Like tax increases.)
But I have an alternate theory, and it's fairly simple.
The economy is trying to recover. It really wants to. There is pent up demand and people are starting to spend money again. Sales of Halloween Candy/Decorations/Cosutems/etc..., for example, is WAY up from the last two years. I can tell you that Automotive sales (and profits) are generally up as well. But then...
HERE COME THE REPUBLICANS...
Debt crisis = higher interest rates = harder to borrow = lousy economy
No More Stimulus = hampers demand = lousy economy
Raise taxes on THE POOR (a favorite of Fox News these days!) = hampers demand = lousy economy
Cut Social Security and Entitlements = hampers demand = lousy economy
Cut Government Salaries and jobs = hampers demand = lousy economy
You see the trend?
The ECONOMY? Would be doing just fine if the Republicans did what they always say the Government should do: STOP FUCKING WITH IT!
All of this instability is due to Washington's (read: REPUBLICANS) refusal to simply DO WHAT IS NECESSARY to make things better.
Now... You might hear the Right tell you that their thinking LONG TERM instead of SHORT TERM.
To which I'll answer, "Yeah..." and point out that, to a Republican, "Short term" means the next fourteen months, while "Long term" meand 2013 through 2016.
If I had my way, I'd execute every one of these scumbags for treason. As it is, they should be impeached and jailed for theft, fraud and corruption. But, at a minimum? THEY SHOULD ALL BE VOTED OUT OF OFFICE. EVERY LAST MOTHERFUCKING ONE OF THEM!
I've said it many times on MMFA, and probably once or twice here, and I'll say it again:
Anyone making less than $250,000 a year who votes Republican is either clinically psychotic or functionally retarded. The rest? Are just greedy.
From July 21st to August 8th it lost 1914.26 points. That's... a pretty substantial drop. Now... Seeing as how it had been an almost consistently upward trend for over a year leading up to that point - up 6097.27 points since its low, about six weeks or so after Obama took office. So... What was going on during that time period that might have given the economy some jitters? Hmmm.... Let me think...
OH YEAH!
The whole stupid DEBT CEILING DEBATE! Thank you, REPUBLICANS! I mean, GOD FORBID the recovery happen when there's a DEMOCRAT in the White House! Keynes might make a comeback or something! (Of course, by stiflingng the stimulus packages, and seeing the recovery falter, they basically PROVED Keynes was right, but don't expect that liberal media (*barf*) to tell you that!) They couldn't bear to see that Obama (and Keynes) were RIGHT, so they invented an issue in order to shit-can the economy. Way to go, Republicans!
And since then, check it out:
UP 429.82
DOWN 519.83
UP 423.37
UP 125.71
UP 213.88
DOWN 77.707
UP 5.017
DOWN 419.63
DOWN 172.93
UP 37
UP 322.11
UP 143.95
DOWN 170.89
UP 134.72
UP 254.71
UP 20.7
UP 53.58
DOWN 119.96
DOWN 369.31
UP 15.04
UP 275.56
DOWN 119.05
DOWN 303.68
UP 68.99
UP 44.73
UP 140.88
UP 186.45
UP 75.91
DOWN 108.08
UP 7.65
DOWN 283.82
DOWN 391.01
UP 37.65
UP 272.38
UP 146.83
DOWN 179.79
UP 143.08
DOWN 240.6
DOWN 258.08
UP 153.41
UP 131.24
UP 183.38
DOWN 20.21
UP 330.06
Now, the trend? On average? Since, August 8th? Is DOWNWARD. OK, yeah, the index is actually UP 193.41 points since the start period, but the trend-line says that we'll lose about 4.65 points per trading day. The thing is? Do you notice how many days there are that the CHANGE (up or down) was in the triple digits? Because I did. Don't bother counting, I'm going to tell you: 32 out of 44. That 72% of the time that the Index changed by roughly 1% of it's overall value. To put that in context - a 1% change in a single day - if it went UP every day by 1%, in a year you'd have roughly THIRTEEN TIMES the money you started with. Now, obviously, that's never going to happen. Down days will cancel out up days and vice-versa. But more than EVER OTHER DAY? THREE OUT OF EVERY FOUR?! That's extraordinary.
So... what does it mean?
Well... You have to understand that the DJIA is nothing but a handful of stocks (30) that the Dow Jones Company picks because they feel that they are a good indicator of the countries overall economic health. (It's actually one of THREE indices for this purpose, but it the only one anyone every talks about, so it's what we're going to talk about.) And you also have to understand what a stock's price actually means. What it is, is the net present value (which assumes some arbitrary inflation rate) of all future dividends (profits) divided by the number of shares. IOW, it's a predictive value of how a company will do. And, obviously, as new information comes in (like quarterly reports?) both that projection, and the price, will change accordingly.
So... what does it mean that "the experts" keep changing their prediction by such a significant amount every day, up and down?
Well, for a start, it may seem that they don't what the hell they're bloody doing! But ACTUALLY, it merely means that there's a lot of economic instability at the moment. Now the Republcians will balme it on all kinds of things that eitehr haven't happened yet (like tax increases) or things that have no chance of happeneing. (Like tax increases.)
But I have an alternate theory, and it's fairly simple.
The economy is trying to recover. It really wants to. There is pent up demand and people are starting to spend money again. Sales of Halloween Candy/Decorations/Cosutems/etc..., for example, is WAY up from the last two years. I can tell you that Automotive sales (and profits) are generally up as well. But then...
HERE COME THE REPUBLICANS...
Debt crisis = higher interest rates = harder to borrow = lousy economy
No More Stimulus = hampers demand = lousy economy
Raise taxes on THE POOR (a favorite of Fox News these days!) = hampers demand = lousy economy
Cut Social Security and Entitlements = hampers demand = lousy economy
Cut Government Salaries and jobs = hampers demand = lousy economy
You see the trend?
The ECONOMY? Would be doing just fine if the Republicans did what they always say the Government should do: STOP FUCKING WITH IT!
All of this instability is due to Washington's (read: REPUBLICANS) refusal to simply DO WHAT IS NECESSARY to make things better.
Now... You might hear the Right tell you that their thinking LONG TERM instead of SHORT TERM.
To which I'll answer, "Yeah..." and point out that, to a Republican, "Short term" means the next fourteen months, while "Long term" meand 2013 through 2016.
If I had my way, I'd execute every one of these scumbags for treason. As it is, they should be impeached and jailed for theft, fraud and corruption. But, at a minimum? THEY SHOULD ALL BE VOTED OUT OF OFFICE. EVERY LAST MOTHERFUCKING ONE OF THEM!
I've said it many times on MMFA, and probably once or twice here, and I'll say it again:
Anyone making less than $250,000 a year who votes Republican is either clinically psychotic or functionally retarded. The rest? Are just greedy.
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Gold Star Awards, November, 2010
The Joe DiMaggio Gold Star #29: ALECWatch
Well, this month started with a piece about ALEC, which may have (finally) represented my loss of innocence when it comes to American Democracy and the death of any remaining idealistic misconceptions I may have had about who’s really in charge in this country. So it’s only appropriate that I start out the final post of the month by awarding the prestigious (ha!) Joe DiMaggio Gold Star to a group dedicated to exposing the truth behind the greatest shadowy political conspiracy the world over that nobody’s talking about. Now… Unfortunately, it seems that this site has not been updated for several years. And I think that’s a shame, because what they DO have there is critically important information that people need to know about. So, if anyone has some information about a more up-to-date ALEC watchdog site, PLEASE let me know and I will be sure to highlight them as well. IMHO, ALEC, more so than any other organization in the world, represents the single greatest threat to the American Democracy. Al Qaeda are bush-league compared to ALEC. Al Qaeda can only know down buildings and kill a few people. That’s horrible, to be sure, but we lost more Americans last year due to reduced vaccination rates than we typically lose to terrorism. (So Al Qaeda's roughly as dangerous to America as Jenny McCarthy.) ALEC, OTOH, is actively and effectively destroying the very soul and fabric of the Country and of the very ideals of popular, representative Democracy that the terrorists hate so much. And at least we’re actually FIGHTING Al-Qaeda. ALEC is a CANCER that we WELCOME into our political system the way an addict welcomes his own chosen poison. They are WINNING in territory that terrorists never even considered fighting for.
The Gabby Hartnett Gold Star #30: Mother Jones
I’ve made no secret of the contempt that I feel for what remains of mainstream journalism. IMHO, even the least of the bloggers do a passably better job of analysis than the average Cable news show, who so often can’t even get basic FACTS right. But if there is a website anywhere that’s more than a blog, and yet practiced journalism the way it is MEANT to be practiced, that site is Mother Jones. I’m a newcomer to their publication, but I have been consistently impressed at the depth and fearlessness with which the pursue their stories. To call them the “NPR of the web” would not even be complimentary. Check them out.
The Ted Lyons Gold Star #31: Down with Tyranny
I’ll have to apologize to the folks at DWT… I am having an increasingly difficult time finding ways to praise my favorite blogs in a way that differentiates them from those that I’ve honored before. The problem is that when I come across a blog that I want to add here, it is usually for the same reasons that I’ve included so many others: Well written; witty, if not humorous; makes me think / challenges me intellectually; etc… And in that regard Down With Tyranny is right up there with Left Hook, Midnight Review, Political Irony, etc… So while I hate to say, “One more great blog that I follow,” unfortunately there is not much I can say that hasn’t been said two or three times before. But they rock. So check them out!
The Dazzy Vance Gold Star #32: Beck Unhinged
Who can’t admire a site that highlight just how utterly bat-shit crazy the now face of Fox News, Glenn Beck, is. Funny in the same way as “$#!t my Dad Says” or Tina Fey doing Sarah Palin (using Palin’s own words) this site makes Glenn Beck look ridiculous but using only quotes from… GLENN BECK. If that’s not doing the Lord’s good work, I don’t know what is. LOL.
The Frank “Home Run” Baker Silver Star #21: Blip
Blip is another of my favorite web comics. It’s about a girl who’s existence was not fated to happen, and thus represents a threat to fabric of reality itself. Heaven has set about suppressing the girl’s creative talents – in order to save the universe, but making her miserable in the process – while Lucifer attempts to unleash her power – by allowing her a modicum of well-deserved happiness. It’s a well written story, with crative and original characters, taking place in a well conceived world of angels, demos and even ancient Gods. It’s at times philosophical, hilarious, poignant, romantic and (recently) tear-jerking. In short this is #1 on my list of favorite web comics at the moments, and well worth checking out. As with all web-comics, I recommend reading it from the beginning.
The Ray Schalk Silver Star #22: Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal
I’ve recently used several pieces of SMBC that I’ve found relevant, but in truth, if I didn’t stop myself, I’d probably be able to find a use for about 99% of the site’s content. They’re absolutely hilarious and absolute relevant, politically and philosophically. You will seldom find a comic that is both finnier and more intelligent. Check them out. You’ll laugh. A lot. (And since the strip is not serial, this is not one you have to read in any particular order.)
------------------------------------------------------
BTW... The Fred Clarke Silver Star winner, Item Not as Described has been taken down and/or been devoured by the Cheeseburger Network. And that's cool, but since (1) They're no longer maintaining the "Free Shit from Craig's List" content, and (2) they already has several Silver Stars to their credit already (FailBlog, Ugliest Tattoos, Engrish) I'm going to replace this link with a new one at some point.
One More Piece of News... The Hughie Jennings' Silver Star winner, web comic YU&ME: Dream has finished it's run. (*sad*) The author, Megan Gedris, finished the story on her own terms and created what I honestly believe to be one of the most complex, creative, whimsical, romantic, thoughtful, and just flat out cool, (not to mention COMPLETED!) web comic around, and has now moved on to another project, which is also totally worth checking out. I'll read anything she writes at this point, but only time will tell if it'll get a Star of it's own in the future. If you haven't read YU&ME: Dream yet, you can do so now, knowing that you will actually be able to FINISH it. And I guarantee you won't be disappointed!
Well, this month started with a piece about ALEC, which may have (finally) represented my loss of innocence when it comes to American Democracy and the death of any remaining idealistic misconceptions I may have had about who’s really in charge in this country. So it’s only appropriate that I start out the final post of the month by awarding the prestigious (ha!) Joe DiMaggio Gold Star to a group dedicated to exposing the truth behind the greatest shadowy political conspiracy the world over that nobody’s talking about. Now… Unfortunately, it seems that this site has not been updated for several years. And I think that’s a shame, because what they DO have there is critically important information that people need to know about. So, if anyone has some information about a more up-to-date ALEC watchdog site, PLEASE let me know and I will be sure to highlight them as well. IMHO, ALEC, more so than any other organization in the world, represents the single greatest threat to the American Democracy. Al Qaeda are bush-league compared to ALEC. Al Qaeda can only know down buildings and kill a few people. That’s horrible, to be sure, but we lost more Americans last year due to reduced vaccination rates than we typically lose to terrorism. (So Al Qaeda's roughly as dangerous to America as Jenny McCarthy.) ALEC, OTOH, is actively and effectively destroying the very soul and fabric of the Country and of the very ideals of popular, representative Democracy that the terrorists hate so much. And at least we’re actually FIGHTING Al-Qaeda. ALEC is a CANCER that we WELCOME into our political system the way an addict welcomes his own chosen poison. They are WINNING in territory that terrorists never even considered fighting for.
The Gabby Hartnett Gold Star #30: Mother Jones
I’ve made no secret of the contempt that I feel for what remains of mainstream journalism. IMHO, even the least of the bloggers do a passably better job of analysis than the average Cable news show, who so often can’t even get basic FACTS right. But if there is a website anywhere that’s more than a blog, and yet practiced journalism the way it is MEANT to be practiced, that site is Mother Jones. I’m a newcomer to their publication, but I have been consistently impressed at the depth and fearlessness with which the pursue their stories. To call them the “NPR of the web” would not even be complimentary. Check them out.
The Ted Lyons Gold Star #31: Down with Tyranny
I’ll have to apologize to the folks at DWT… I am having an increasingly difficult time finding ways to praise my favorite blogs in a way that differentiates them from those that I’ve honored before. The problem is that when I come across a blog that I want to add here, it is usually for the same reasons that I’ve included so many others: Well written; witty, if not humorous; makes me think / challenges me intellectually; etc… And in that regard Down With Tyranny is right up there with Left Hook, Midnight Review, Political Irony, etc… So while I hate to say, “One more great blog that I follow,” unfortunately there is not much I can say that hasn’t been said two or three times before. But they rock. So check them out!
The Dazzy Vance Gold Star #32: Beck Unhinged
Who can’t admire a site that highlight just how utterly bat-shit crazy the now face of Fox News, Glenn Beck, is. Funny in the same way as “$#!t my Dad Says” or Tina Fey doing Sarah Palin (using Palin’s own words) this site makes Glenn Beck look ridiculous but using only quotes from… GLENN BECK. If that’s not doing the Lord’s good work, I don’t know what is. LOL.
The Frank “Home Run” Baker Silver Star #21: Blip
Blip is another of my favorite web comics. It’s about a girl who’s existence was not fated to happen, and thus represents a threat to fabric of reality itself. Heaven has set about suppressing the girl’s creative talents – in order to save the universe, but making her miserable in the process – while Lucifer attempts to unleash her power – by allowing her a modicum of well-deserved happiness. It’s a well written story, with crative and original characters, taking place in a well conceived world of angels, demos and even ancient Gods. It’s at times philosophical, hilarious, poignant, romantic and (recently) tear-jerking. In short this is #1 on my list of favorite web comics at the moments, and well worth checking out. As with all web-comics, I recommend reading it from the beginning.
The Ray Schalk Silver Star #22: Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal
I’ve recently used several pieces of SMBC that I’ve found relevant, but in truth, if I didn’t stop myself, I’d probably be able to find a use for about 99% of the site’s content. They’re absolutely hilarious and absolute relevant, politically and philosophically. You will seldom find a comic that is both finnier and more intelligent. Check them out. You’ll laugh. A lot. (And since the strip is not serial, this is not one you have to read in any particular order.)
------------------------------------------------------
BTW... The Fred Clarke Silver Star winner, Item Not as Described has been taken down and/or been devoured by the Cheeseburger Network. And that's cool, but since (1) They're no longer maintaining the "Free Shit from Craig's List" content, and (2) they already has several Silver Stars to their credit already (FailBlog, Ugliest Tattoos, Engrish) I'm going to replace this link with a new one at some point.
One More Piece of News... The Hughie Jennings' Silver Star winner, web comic YU&ME: Dream has finished it's run. (*sad*) The author, Megan Gedris, finished the story on her own terms and created what I honestly believe to be one of the most complex, creative, whimsical, romantic, thoughtful, and just flat out cool, (not to mention COMPLETED!) web comic around, and has now moved on to another project, which is also totally worth checking out. I'll read anything she writes at this point, but only time will tell if it'll get a Star of it's own in the future. If you haven't read YU&ME: Dream yet, you can do so now, knowing that you will actually be able to FINISH it. And I guarantee you won't be disappointed!
Saturday, February 13, 2010
Who does better with the economy?
The economy is something the right likes to harp about all the time but, just like everything else, really has no credibility on. I guess the thinking goes that since all the successful CEO’s are Republican (not true, but whatever), and they all know how to run COMPANIES (like, you know… Enron, General Motors and Citibank?) then the Republicans MUST be better at “running the economy.” Couple problems with that… First off all, the vast majority of Republican politicians, like most politicians in general, are LAWYERS, not businessmen. Second, a company is to the economy what today’s weather is to the climate – the two are related, but a thorough understanding of one or the other requires a completely different skill set. (Go figure that they aren’t on the right side of the global warming debate either!)
Now… it should be clear why these "successful" CEO’s "all" vote Republican: Republican generally don’t put as many regulations on industries and prefer the lesse-faire approach. That this approach has ALWAYS ended in disaster is apparently lost on them, but the CEO’s seem to think they’ll make more money under Republicans.
But will the economy do better? (Will we keep our jobs? Will our investments grow?)
Let's take a look at how the economy has performed under Democrats and Republicans using two of the most common economic indicators: The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard and Poores 500 Index. Here’s how the experiment will work. We’ll hypotyhetically put $1000.00 on the market when one party takes the White House, sell it when they’re voted out, and put it all back in when the regain power. We’ll then calculate what you’d have today if you’d done this over the years. The two strategies will be called “Betting on the Dem’s” and “Betting on the Pub’s.”
I was able to find DIJA data going back to 1900. We’ll do the Pub’s first. The idea is that you’ll BUY udner McKinnley, SELL with Wilson, BUY with Harding, SELL with Roosevelt, BUY with Eisenhower, SELL with Kennedy, etc… through to the present day, when you would SELL when Obama took office. And I’m going to show 6 different scenarios, depending on which President you want to start with. Also, it should be noted that I’m using the Jan-1 closing data, rather than the day they actually took office. This is because that’s the only data I have. If I can find some more precise data, date-wise, I’ll re-calculate it. Here is the data I’m using:
Date:_____DJIA: _____Incoming (Incumbant) Presdient:
2/12/2010_10,099____(Obama-D)
1/1/2009__8,000_____Obama-D
1/1/2001__10,887____Bush-R
1/1/1993__3,310_____Clinton-D
1/1/1981__947_______Reagan-R
1/1/1977__954_______Carter-D
1/1/1969__945_______Nixon-R
1/1/1961__648_______Kennedy-D
1/1/1953__290_______Eisenhower-R
1/1/1933__51________Roosevelt-D
1/1/1921__72________Harding-R
1/1/1913__88________Wilson-D
1/1/1900__68________(McKinley-R)
Using this data, and calculating the number of shares and values you’d have at each stage, if you used the “Bet on the Pub’s” strategy, starting with McKinley, your $1000 would be worth $5311. today. If you started under Harding, your $1000 would be worth $4104 today. If you started under Eisenhower, your $1000 would be worth $5794 today. If you started under Nixon, your $1000 would be worth $2593 today. If you started under Regan, your $1000 would be worth $2568 today. And for the poor saps who thought they’d bet on George W. Bush, their $1000 would be now worth only $735. Now… these returns account ONLY for the growth under Republicans. If you figure out the number of year involved (starting date through 1/1/2009) and calculate the annual rate of return [ (Final value / Initial Value) ^ (1 / number of years) -1 ] you get the following, based on which President you start with:
McKinnley: 1.5%
Harding: 1.6%
Eisenhower: 3.2%
Nixon: 2.4%
Reagan: 3.4 %
Bush: -3.8%
Here’s how “Betting on the Dem’s” performed: Starting with Wilson, your $1000 would be worth $28,089 today. Starting with Roosevelt, your $1000 would be worth $34,341 today. Starting with Kennedy, your $1000 would be worth $6038 today. Starting with Carter, your $1000 would be worth $4140 today. Starting with Clinton, your $1000 would be worth $4171 today, and starting with Obama, your $1000 would be worth $1268 today.
Figuring the yields the same way, (only going through to the TODAY, rather than ending on 1/1/09) you get this for the Dem’s:
Wilson: 3.5%
Roosevelt: 4.7%
Kennedy: 3.7%
Carter: 4.4%
Clinton: 8.7%
Obama: 23.7%
That’s right – the WORST CASE scenario under the “Betting on the Dem’s,” (Wilson, 3.5%) still gives a better return than the BEST CASE scenario under “Betting on the Pub’s,” (Reagan, 3.4%) So according to the DJIA, the economy not only does better under Democrats, it does much, MUCH better!
But who knows… MAYBE the DJIA has a liberal bias or something. So how about the S&P 500? Now, the S&P only goes back to the 1950’s. So we’ll start with Eisenhower. Here’s the raw market-close data:
Date:_____S&P:___Incoming (Incumbant) President:
2/12/2010_1078___(Obama-D)
1/1/2008__826____Obama-D
1/1/2001__1366___Bush-R
1/1/1993__439____Clinton-D
1/1/1981__130____Reagan-R
1/1/1977__102____Cater-D
1/1/1969__103____Nixon-R
1/1/1961__62_____Kennedy-D
1/1/1953__26_____Eisenhower-R
And here we go again. If you started with Eisenhower, your $1000 would be worth $4822 today. If you’d started with Nixon, your $1000 would be worth $2022 today. IF you’d started with Reagan, your $1000 would be worth $2042 today. And the poor sap who bet on George W. Bush would only have $605 left of his initial $1000 investment. Using the same formula, here are the returns, starting with:
Eisenhower: 2.8%
Nixon: 1.8%
Reagan: 2.6%
Bush: -6.1%
Back to the Dems… If you’d started with Kennedy, your $1000 would be worth $8598 today. If you’d started with Carter, your $1000 would be worth $5176 today. If you’d started with Clinton, your $1000 would be worth $4061 today, And betting only on Obama, your $1000 would be worth $1305 today. So, again, using the same formula, here are the returns, starting with:
Kennedy: 4.5%
Carter: 5.1%
Clinton: 8.5%
Obama: 27.0%
AGAIN, the worst case scenario under the “Dem’s” strategy (Kennedy, 4.5%) is STILL better than the best case scenario under the “Pub’s” strategy (Eisenhower 2.8%).
Now... Obama's market is obviously still in play, and so the final Democratic returns can vary. But as it stands right now… if you want to be better off financially, you’d better do what you can to help the Democrats WIN!
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BTW… there are some flaws with this whole exercise. I’m not going to point them out yet, since I’m not particularly motivated to go help the Right bolster their case here. (Plus I'm just curious to see what any of them come up with.) However, I have been challenged with several pretty clever arguments given to me by Conservatives, pointing some of these out in an attempt to undermine this, and the conclusion still stands. Maybe some conservative who knows what’s what will eventually shoot something my way that will stump me. But I’m not holding my breath!
Also, I’d be happy to explain how I calculated any of the above returns, if anyone does their own number-crunching and comes up with a different number. I’ve tried several different methodologies and they all give the same final answer: Dem’s rock, Pub’s are the suck. This is just the one that I felt was most defensible.
Now… it should be clear why these "successful" CEO’s "all" vote Republican: Republican generally don’t put as many regulations on industries and prefer the lesse-faire approach. That this approach has ALWAYS ended in disaster is apparently lost on them, but the CEO’s seem to think they’ll make more money under Republicans.
But will the economy do better? (Will we keep our jobs? Will our investments grow?)
Let's take a look at how the economy has performed under Democrats and Republicans using two of the most common economic indicators: The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard and Poores 500 Index. Here’s how the experiment will work. We’ll hypotyhetically put $1000.00 on the market when one party takes the White House, sell it when they’re voted out, and put it all back in when the regain power. We’ll then calculate what you’d have today if you’d done this over the years. The two strategies will be called “Betting on the Dem’s” and “Betting on the Pub’s.”
I was able to find DIJA data going back to 1900. We’ll do the Pub’s first. The idea is that you’ll BUY udner McKinnley, SELL with Wilson, BUY with Harding, SELL with Roosevelt, BUY with Eisenhower, SELL with Kennedy, etc… through to the present day, when you would SELL when Obama took office. And I’m going to show 6 different scenarios, depending on which President you want to start with. Also, it should be noted that I’m using the Jan-1 closing data, rather than the day they actually took office. This is because that’s the only data I have. If I can find some more precise data, date-wise, I’ll re-calculate it. Here is the data I’m using:
Date:_____DJIA: _____Incoming (Incumbant) Presdient:
2/12/2010_10,099____(Obama-D)
1/1/2009__8,000_____Obama-D
1/1/2001__10,887____Bush-R
1/1/1993__3,310_____Clinton-D
1/1/1981__947_______Reagan-R
1/1/1977__954_______Carter-D
1/1/1969__945_______Nixon-R
1/1/1961__648_______Kennedy-D
1/1/1953__290_______Eisenhower-R
1/1/1933__51________Roosevelt-D
1/1/1921__72________Harding-R
1/1/1913__88________Wilson-D
1/1/1900__68________(McKinley-R)
Using this data, and calculating the number of shares and values you’d have at each stage, if you used the “Bet on the Pub’s” strategy, starting with McKinley, your $1000 would be worth $5311. today. If you started under Harding, your $1000 would be worth $4104 today. If you started under Eisenhower, your $1000 would be worth $5794 today. If you started under Nixon, your $1000 would be worth $2593 today. If you started under Regan, your $1000 would be worth $2568 today. And for the poor saps who thought they’d bet on George W. Bush, their $1000 would be now worth only $735. Now… these returns account ONLY for the growth under Republicans. If you figure out the number of year involved (starting date through 1/1/2009) and calculate the annual rate of return [ (Final value / Initial Value) ^ (1 / number of years) -1 ] you get the following, based on which President you start with:
McKinnley: 1.5%
Harding: 1.6%
Eisenhower: 3.2%
Nixon: 2.4%
Reagan: 3.4 %
Bush: -3.8%
Here’s how “Betting on the Dem’s” performed: Starting with Wilson, your $1000 would be worth $28,089 today. Starting with Roosevelt, your $1000 would be worth $34,341 today. Starting with Kennedy, your $1000 would be worth $6038 today. Starting with Carter, your $1000 would be worth $4140 today. Starting with Clinton, your $1000 would be worth $4171 today, and starting with Obama, your $1000 would be worth $1268 today.
Figuring the yields the same way, (only going through to the TODAY, rather than ending on 1/1/09) you get this for the Dem’s:
Wilson: 3.5%
Roosevelt: 4.7%
Kennedy: 3.7%
Carter: 4.4%
Clinton: 8.7%
Obama: 23.7%
That’s right – the WORST CASE scenario under the “Betting on the Dem’s,” (Wilson, 3.5%) still gives a better return than the BEST CASE scenario under “Betting on the Pub’s,” (Reagan, 3.4%) So according to the DJIA, the economy not only does better under Democrats, it does much, MUCH better!
But who knows… MAYBE the DJIA has a liberal bias or something. So how about the S&P 500? Now, the S&P only goes back to the 1950’s. So we’ll start with Eisenhower. Here’s the raw market-close data:
Date:_____S&P:___Incoming (Incumbant) President:
2/12/2010_1078___(Obama-D)
1/1/2008__826____Obama-D
1/1/2001__1366___Bush-R
1/1/1993__439____Clinton-D
1/1/1981__130____Reagan-R
1/1/1977__102____Cater-D
1/1/1969__103____Nixon-R
1/1/1961__62_____Kennedy-D
1/1/1953__26_____Eisenhower-R
And here we go again. If you started with Eisenhower, your $1000 would be worth $4822 today. If you’d started with Nixon, your $1000 would be worth $2022 today. IF you’d started with Reagan, your $1000 would be worth $2042 today. And the poor sap who bet on George W. Bush would only have $605 left of his initial $1000 investment. Using the same formula, here are the returns, starting with:
Eisenhower: 2.8%
Nixon: 1.8%
Reagan: 2.6%
Bush: -6.1%
Back to the Dems… If you’d started with Kennedy, your $1000 would be worth $8598 today. If you’d started with Carter, your $1000 would be worth $5176 today. If you’d started with Clinton, your $1000 would be worth $4061 today, And betting only on Obama, your $1000 would be worth $1305 today. So, again, using the same formula, here are the returns, starting with:
Kennedy: 4.5%
Carter: 5.1%
Clinton: 8.5%
Obama: 27.0%
AGAIN, the worst case scenario under the “Dem’s” strategy (Kennedy, 4.5%) is STILL better than the best case scenario under the “Pub’s” strategy (Eisenhower 2.8%).
Now... Obama's market is obviously still in play, and so the final Democratic returns can vary. But as it stands right now… if you want to be better off financially, you’d better do what you can to help the Democrats WIN!
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BTW… there are some flaws with this whole exercise. I’m not going to point them out yet, since I’m not particularly motivated to go help the Right bolster their case here. (Plus I'm just curious to see what any of them come up with.) However, I have been challenged with several pretty clever arguments given to me by Conservatives, pointing some of these out in an attempt to undermine this, and the conclusion still stands. Maybe some conservative who knows what’s what will eventually shoot something my way that will stump me. But I’m not holding my breath!
Also, I’d be happy to explain how I calculated any of the above returns, if anyone does their own number-crunching and comes up with a different number. I’ve tried several different methodologies and they all give the same final answer: Dem’s rock, Pub’s are the suck. This is just the one that I felt was most defensible.
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